Parametric
Nelson and Siegel (1987)
Svensson, L (1994)
Spline Interpolation
FNZ (Fisher Nychka Zervos) (1995) - smoothing
Anderson and Sleath (2001)
Cubic-Spline Interpolation
McCulloch (1971)
Anderson and Sleath (2001)
A basis spline is a spline function that has minimual support with respect to a given degree, smoothness and domain partition.
One Factor
just use the short rate for everything
No-Arbitrage
also called relative value
use observed market prices
No-Arbitrage - Normal
assumes interest rate volatility is independent (not related to) the level of the interest rate
Ho and Lee (1986)
No mean reversion
Hull and White (HW) (1990)
This model extends the Vasicek Model and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross models and allows for mean reversion.
No-Arbitrage - Lognormal
assumes interest rate volatility depends on the level of the interest rate
Black (1976)
Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) (1987)
Black-Derman-Toy (BDT) (1990)
Allows for mean reversion which is determined by market conditions
Black-Karasinski (BK)
Allows for mean reversion
Kalotay-Williams-Fabozzi (KWF)
No mean reversion. For pricing bonds with embedded options
Equilibrium
Vasicek (1977)
Brennan-Schwartz (1979, 1982)
Cox-Ingersoll-Rox (CIR) (1981, 1985)
This is a square root process
Multi Factor
one factor for short rate
another factor for long rate
No-Arbitrage
Hull and White (HW) (1987) - Two Factor
Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) (1992)
This model is for predicting forward rates
Equilibrium
Longstaff-Schwartz (1989)
Others ??
Merton (1973)
Geometric Brownian Motion
Dothan (1978)
Courtadon (1982)
Langetieg (1980)
Richard (1979)
Black Scholes (1973)
Jarrow and Rudd (1982)
Boyle (1977) - monte carlo simulation
Pure Expectations Theory
Term structure reflects the markets current expectation of the future rates. A rising yield curve is explained by investors expecting short-term interest rates to go up.
This says that the only factor that affects the shape of a yield curve is the markets expectation about future interest rates.
Liquidity Preference Theory
Investors prefer liquidity, upward sloping yield curve. Intuitively long-term investments are more risky than short-term so long dated yields should be higher than short-term yields.
Market Segmentation Hypothesis
Shape is determined by the supply and demand of the securities within each maturity sector. Shape is best explained by a combination of all 3 theories.
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